A New Validation Protocol for the pelagic fish complex in Nordic Seas

The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) is proud to announce its significant contribution to cutting-edge research on validating models of pelagic social-ecological systems. Published in Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, this study - conducted within the framework of the Marine SABRES EU project - introduces the "Presumed Utility Protocol," a tool designed to improve the quality and reliability of qualitative models such as causal loop diagrams (CLDs).

Three of MFRI’s researchers - Pamela Woods, Anna H. Ólafsdóttir, and Sandra Rybicki - played an important role in developing and applying this protocol, focusing on the Arctic Northeast Atlantic Ocean as a demonstration area. This region, encompassing the waters of Greenland, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands, is vital for commercial fisheries and heavily influenced by climate variabilities. The study’s CLD for the area highlighted challenges such as pelagic fish stock variability, international quota allocation agreements, and the socio-economic impacts of changing marine ecosystems.

The Presumed Utility Protocol addresses key gaps in validating CLDs by introducing a multidimensional framework of 26 criteria across four dimensions: structural verification, boundary adequacy, policy insights, and administrative oversight. When applied to the demonstration area, the protocol provided valuable insights into improving model robustness, enabling more precise recommendations for sustainable resource management and international collaboration.

Key findings for the demonstration area included the need for better integration of environmental variability with political and economic considerations, particularly in the context of fish quota sharing. The research underscored the importance of incorporating diverse stakeholder perspectives and adapting models to reflect the dynamic realities of the ecosystem.

By refining modeling practices, this work strengthens the ability of scientists, policymakers, and stakeholders to navigate complex marine challenges in the Arctic Northeast Atlantic and beyond. MFRI remains committed to supporting innovative research that empowers sustainable management of our shared marine resources.

For more details, explore the full study in Current Research in Environmental Sustainability. Explore more about the Arctic Northeast Atlantic Demonstration Area and the Marine SABRES project on the Marine SABRES website.