Recently published article

An article titled "Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters" was recently published in the ICES Journal of Marine Science.

The authors include Julia Mason and Kristin Kleisner at the Environmental Defence Fund (EDF) and NOAA Fisheries, Pamela Woods, Magnús Thorlacius and Kristinn Guðnason at the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Vincent Saba at Princeton University and Patrick Sullivan at Cornell University.

Link to the article

Article figure showing predicted changes in habitat of demersal species over the period 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2018, according to climate change predictions as the situation is now (SSP 2-4.5) or if fossil fuels will be increase with future economic development (SSP 5-8.5). Colors indicate categorization of species according to relative ideal habitat: warm (red), cool (light blue) and cold (dark blue) waters.

It was shown that climate change induced changes in sea temperature have an impact on the density and distribution of marine resources. While continuing to mitigate climate change, it is also important to try to understand the impacts on our resources so that we can adapt quickly and responsibly. This is done, among other things, by determining what effect the changes have had on each species, predicting future changes, e.g. in temperature, and estimating expected change for each species.

The study used a combination of many climate models to predict changes in sea temperature until 2080. On the one hand, a forecast model was used that assumes a continued moderate reduction in fossil fuel use, and on the other hand, a forecast model that assumes continued rates of use of fossil fuels. Data from the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute's March trawl 1985-2020 together with the autumn trawl 2000-2020 were used to estimate the impact on the habitat of 51 species of demersal fish. According to the results of the study, a positive effect can be expected on warm-water species such as e.g. ling, blue whiting, haddock and monkfish. Negative effects are expected in species that thrive better in cool or cold seas, e.g. Atlantic wolffish, spotted wolffish, lumpfish, and roundnose grenadier.