Blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou
Publication of Advice: 30 September 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 1 447 054 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and Fpa but below Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Blue whiting. Total and Icelandic catches, recruitment at age 1, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of assessement and reference points
Prospects
Blue whiting. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Blue whiting. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on annual catch scenarios. All weights in tonnes.
The advice for 2025 is 5.4% lower than that for 2024 due to a decline in biomass caused by a high F and, recent low recruitment (2022 and 2023 year classes).
Quality of the assessment
This year’s assessment shows consistent estimates of spawning-stock size, fishing mortality and recruitment compared to previous assessments.
Blue whiting. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Other Information
There have been consistent deviations from the long-term management strategy since 2018 as evident from the sum of unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the management strategy (ICES, 2016), the implementation error in the form of a consistent overshoot of the TAC was not included. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the MSY approach or the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.
Both the 2020 and 2021 year classes are among the highest in the time‑series, and are fully recruited to the fishery in 2025. Notably, 31% and 44% of the catch in 2025 is predicted to consist of fish from the 2020 and 2021 year class, respectively. The fishery will depend on these two large year classes in the coming years. The history of the stock shows that subsequent years of low recruitment after a period of high recruitment may cause the SSB to quickly drop to lower levels and would lead to a reduction in future advice. Other surveys, which are not currently used in the assessment, confirm that the 2022 and 2023 year classes are low.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Blue whiting. Recommended TAC, national TAC and catches (tonnes).
References and further reading
Anon 2021. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and UK on the management of blue whiting in the north-east Atlantic in 2022. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/2ea04e97a8fd45c2b1758e2602e79c46/blue-whiting-agreed-record-october-2021.pdf
ICES. 2016. Report of the Workshop on Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) Long Term Management Strategy Evaluation (WKBWMS), 30 August 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:53. 104 pp.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Blue whiting. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30 september 2024.
ICES. 2024. Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in subareas 1-9, 12, and 14 (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2024. ICES Advice 2024, whb.27.1-91214. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.25019714
ICES. 2024. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:81. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.26993227