Blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou
Publication of Advice: 30 September 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 1 447 054 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and Fpa but below Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Blue whiting. Total and Icelandic catches, recruitment at age 1, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of assessement and reference points
Basis of the advice | Long-term management strategy |
Management plan | A long-term management strategy was agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Norway, and subsequently by UK in 2021 (Anon 2021). ICES evaluated the strategy and found it to be precautionary (ICES 2016, 2017) |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Commercial catches, preliminary estimate of catch-at-age in the year (Q1--Q2) in which the assessment is carried out. One survey index (International Blue Whiting Spawning Stock Survey [IBWSS; A1142] ages 1-8, 2004-2024, excluding 2010 and 2020). Time invariant maturity at age was estimated in 1994 by combining maturity ogives from the southern and northern areas. Time invariant natural mortality fixed at 0.2 for all ages, derived in the 1980s from age compositions before the targeted fishery started. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY | MSY Btrigger | 2 250 000 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.32 | Stochastic simulations. | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 1 500 000 | MBAL (accepted in 1998); in million tonnes. |
Bpa | 2 250 000 | Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 × σ), σ = 0.147 | |
Flim | 0.88 | The fishing mortality that leads to SSB = Blim | |
Fpa | 0.32 | The fishing mortality leading to P (SSB > Blim) > 95% with MSY Btrigger | |
Long-term management strategy | SSBmgt_lower | 1 500 000 | Blim |
SSBmgt | 2 250 000 | Bpa | |
Fmgt_lower | 0.05 | Arbitrary low F | |
Fmgt | 0.32 | FMSY |
Prospects
Blue whiting. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages 3–7 (2024) | 0.51 | From the assessment (based on assumed catch in 2024). |
SSB (2025) | 5 966 970 | From the forecast for 2025; in tonnes. |
Rage 1 (2024) | 16 667 202 | From assessment model; in thousands. |
Rage 1 (2025-2026) | 22 993 253 | Geometric mean (1996–2023); in thousands. |
Total catch (2024) | 1 881 072 | Sum of declared unilateral quotas; in tonnes. |
Blue whiting. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on annual catch scenarios. All weights in tonnes.
Grunnur | Afli (2025) | Veiðidánartala (2025) | Hrygningarstofn (2026) | % Breyting á hrygningarstofni1) | % Breyting á afla2) | % Breyting á ráðgjöf3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Langtímanýtingarstefna: F = Fmgt | 1 447 054 | 0.32 | 5 761 173 | -3 | -23 | -5 |
F=F2024 | 2 154 655 | 0.51 | 5 079 233 | -15 | 15 | 41 |
1) Hrygningarstofn árið 2026 miðað við hrygningarstofn 2025 | ||||||
2) Ráðlagt aflamark fyrir 2025 miðað við áætlaðan afla 2024 (1 881 072 t) | ||||||
3) Ráðlagt aflamark fyrir 2025 miðað við ráðlagt aflamark 2024 (1 529 754 t) | ||||||
The advice for 2025 is 5.4% lower than that for 2024 due to a decline in biomass caused by a high F and, recent low recruitment (2022 and 2023 year classes).
Quality of the assessment
This year’s assessment shows consistent estimates of spawning-stock size, fishing mortality and recruitment compared to previous assessments.
Blue whiting. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Other Information
There have been consistent deviations from the long-term management strategy since 2018 as evident from the sum of unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the management strategy (ICES, 2016), the implementation error in the form of a consistent overshoot of the TAC was not included. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the MSY approach or the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.
Both the 2020 and 2021 year classes are among the highest in the time‑series, and are fully recruited to the fishery in 2025. Notably, 31% and 44% of the catch in 2025 is predicted to consist of fish from the 2020 and 2021 year class, respectively. The fishery will depend on these two large year classes in the coming years. The history of the stock shows that subsequent years of low recruitment after a period of high recruitment may cause the SSB to quickly drop to lower levels and would lead to a reduction in future advice. Other surveys, which are not currently used in the assessment, confirm that the 2022 and 2023 year classes are low.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Blue whiting. Recommended TAC, national TAC and catches (tonnes).
Year | Recommended TAC | Iceland national TAC | Catches Iceland | Total national TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1987 | 950 000 | ||||
1988 | 832 000 | ||||
1989 | 630 000 | ||||
1990 | 600 000 | ||||
1991 | 670 000 | ||||
1992 | |||||
1993 | 490 000 | ||||
1994 | 485 000 | 650 000 | |||
1995 | 518 000 | 369 | 650 000 | 578 905 | |
1996 | 500 000 | 501 | 650 000 | 645 982 | |
1997 | 540 000 | 10 646 | 672 437 | ||
1998 | 650 000 | 68 681 | 1 128 969 | ||
1999 | 650 000 | 160 425 | 1 256 228 | ||
2000 | 800 000 | 260 938 | 1 412 927 | ||
2001 | 628 000 | 365 099 | 1 780 170 | ||
2002 | 0 | 282 000 | 286 430 | 1 556 792 | |
2003 | 600 000 | 318 000 | 501 496 | 2 321 406 | |
2004 | 925 000 | 713 000 | 422 078 | 2 380 161 | |
2005 | 1 075 000 | 345 000 | 265 515 | 2 034 309 | |
2006 | 1 500 000 | 352 600 | 314 768 | 2 100 000 | 1 976 176 |
2007 | 980 000 | 299 710 | 237 854 | 1 847 000 | 1 625 255 |
2008 | 835 000 | 202 836 | 163 793 | 1 250 000 | 1 260 615 |
2009 | 384 000 | 95 739 | 120 202 | 606 000 | 641 818 |
2010 | 540 000 | 87 625 | 87 908 | 548 000 | 526 357 |
2011 | 223 000 | 6 507 | 5 882 | 40 000 | 103 620 |
2012 | 391 000 | 63 447 | 63 056 | 391 000 | 384 021 |
2013 | 643 000 | 104 339 | 104 918 | 643 000 | 628 169 |
2014 | 948 950 | 194 722 | 182 879 | 1 200 000 | 1 155 279 |
2015 | 839 886 | 202 958 | 214 870 | 1 260 000 | 1 396 244 |
2016 | 776 391 | 163 570 | 186 914 | 1 147 000 | 1 183 187 |
2017 | 1 342 330 | 264 000 | 228 935 | 1 675 400 | 1 558 061 |
2018 | 1 387 872 | 275 971 | 292 952 | 1 727 964 | 1 711 477 |
2019 | 1 143 629 | 226 727 | 268 351 | 1 483 208 | 1 515 527 |
2020 | 1 161 615 | 230 111 | 243 725 | 1 478 358 | 1 495 248 |
2021 | 929 292 | 196 081 | 190 147 | 1 157 604 | 1 143 450 |
2022 | 752 736 | 174 557 | 191 813 | 752 736 | 1 038 736 |
2023 | 1 359 629 | 273 442 | 292 853 | 1 359 629 | 1 737 098 |
2024 | 1 529 754 | 305 961 | 1 529 754 | ||
2025 | 1 447 054 |
References and further reading
Anon 2021. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and UK on the management of blue whiting in the north-east Atlantic in 2022. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/2ea04e97a8fd45c2b1758e2602e79c46/blue-whiting-agreed-record-october-2021.pdf
ICES. 2016. Report of the Workshop on Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) Long Term Management Strategy Evaluation (WKBWMS), 30 August 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:53. 104 pp.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Blue whiting. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30 september 2024.
ICES. 2024. Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in subareas 1-9, 12, and 14 (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2024. ICES Advice 2024, whb.27.1-91214. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.25019714
ICES. 2024. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:81. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.26993227