NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING Clupea harengus
Publication of Advice: 30. september 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 401 794 tonnes.
Stofnþróun
Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and between Fpa and Flim, and spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger and Bpa, and above Blim.
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Catch by Iceland and others, recruitment, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of assessement and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management strategy |
Management plan | A long-term management strategy was agreed by coastal states in 2018 (Anon, 2018) and subsequently by the UK (Anon, 2020). |
Assessment type | Age-based analytical model (SAM). |
Input data | Assessment period 1988–2024: commercial catches-at-age (stock weight-at-age from surveys and, since 2009, from catch sampling). Three survey indices: Norwegian acoustic survey on spawning grounds in February/March (NASF [A7918], 1988–1989, 1994–1996, 1998–2000, 2005–2008, 2015–2024), International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas (IESNS |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 3.184 | Bpa; in million tonnes |
FMSY | 0.157 | Stochastic simulations with Beverton–Holt, segmented regression, and Ricker stock–recruitment relationships, capped to FP05. | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 2.5 | SSB beyond which recruitment becomes impaired; in million tonnes |
Bpa | 3.184 | Based on Blim and assessment uncertainties.Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 × σ), σ = 0.147 ; in million tonnes | |
Flim | 0.291 | Equilibrium scenarios with stochastic recruitment: F value corresponding to 50% probability of (SSB < Blim) | |
Fpa | 0.157 | FP05. the F that leads to SSB ≥ Blim with 95% probability. | |
Long-term management strategy | SSB mgt_lower | 2.5 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. SSB values in million tonnes |
SSB mgt | 3.184 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. SSB values in million tonnes | |
F mgt_lower | 0.05 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. | |
F mgt | 0.14 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. |
Prospects
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
F5-12+ (2024) | 0.13 | Based on assumed catches in 2024 |
SSB (2025) | 2.93 | From the assessment model; in million tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2024) | 37.43 | Estimated by the model; in billions |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 11.27 | Median stochastic recruitment based on the years 1988–2024; billions. |
Catch (2024) | 446 928 | Sum of declared unilateral quotas; tonnes |
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis | Catch (2025) | Fishing pressure (2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) | Catch change3) | % probability of falling below Blim in 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Agreed management strategy | 401 794 | 0.107 | 3 289 632 | 12 | 3 | -10 | 2 |
F=F2024 | 497 087 | 0.134 | 3 187 530 | 9 | 27 | 11 | 3 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||||
2) Catch in 2025 relative to catch in 2024 (446928 tonnes) | |||||||
3) Advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (390010 tonnes) | |||||||
The advice for 2025 increases slightly compared to 2024 since the incoming year classes (2021 and 2022) are estimated to be stronger than average, and the 2016 year class is revised upwards.
Quality of the Assessement
The estimated SSB and fishing mortality are consistent with the estimates from last year’s assessment. The 2016 year class has been revised upward over the last years.
The estimated recruitment in 2024 is now taken from the assessment model. Last year the geometric mean was used. The reason for this change is that the abundance of age 2 was available from the 2024 Barents Sea survey (which had reduced coverage compared to previous years).
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Other Information
There has been an overshoot of the catches in relation to the advised TAC since 2013. The advice is based on the target fishing mortality in the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation; it does not consider the deviations from the long-term management strategy as evident from the sum of declared unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the long-term management strategy (ICES, 2018a), the implementation error in the form of a consistent overshoot of the TAC was not included. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Year | Recommended TAC ICES | Iceland national TAC | Catches Iceland | Total national TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 1 170 000 | 145 000 | 151 074 | 988 000 | 841 924 |
2012 | 833 000 | 121 000 | 120 956 | 833 000 | 705 043 |
2013 | 619 000 | 90 000 | 90 729 | 692 000 | 594 014 |
2014 | 418 487 | 61 000 | 58 828 | 436 893 | 402 478 |
2015 | 283 013 | 41 000 | 42 626 | 328 206 | 286 114 |
2016 | 316 876 | 46 000 | 50 418 | 376 612 | 332 756 |
2017 | 437 364 | 103 000 | 90 400 | 805 142 | 631 166 |
2018 | 384 197 | 72 428 | 83 392 | 546 448 | 509 507 |
2019 | 588 562 | 102 174 | 107 889 | 773 750 | 669 276 |
2020 | 525 594 | 91 243 | 98 173 | 693 915 | 622 764 |
2021 | 651 033 | 117 707 | 114 299 | 881 097 | 737 514 |
2022 | 598 588 | 108 225 | 112 739 | 827 963 | 813 834 |
2023 | 511 171 | 90 954 | 92 197 | 692 942 | 680 552 |
2024 | 390 010 | 61 395 | 446 928 | ||
2025 | 401 794 |
References and further reading
Anon. 2018. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Iceland, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Norway and the Russian Federation on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring stock in the North-East Atlantic in 2019. London, 6 November 2018. 6 pp. see here
Anon. 2020. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring in the North-East Atlantic in 2021. Video-conference, 20-21 October 2020. 7 pp. see here
ICES. 2016. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Pelagic Stocks (WKPELA), 29 February–4 March 2016, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:34. 106 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5581
ICES. 2018a. Report of the Workshop on a long-term management strategy for Norwegian Spring-spawning herring (WKNSSHMSE), 26–27 August 2018, Torshavn, Faroe Islands. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:53. 113 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5583.
ICES. 2018b. Report of the Workshop on the determination of reference points for Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring (WKNSSHREF), 10–11 April 2018, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:45. 83 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5582
ICES. 2024. Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5 and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2024. ICES Advice 2024, her.27.1-24a514a. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.25019270
ICES. 2024. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:81. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.26993227
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30. September 2024.