DEMERSAL BEAKED REDFISH
Sebastes mentella
Publication of Advice: 7 June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the MSY approach and precautionary considerations are applied, catches in 2024/2025 should be 0 tonnes.
Stock Development
Fishing pressure is above FMSY, Fpa and Flim, and spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Demersal beaked redfish. Catches, recruitment (age 3), fishing mortality, and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Analytical assessment (Gadget) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast |
Input data | Commercial catches; indices from the autumn survey in Icelandic waters (IS-SMH) length composition from commercial catches; age- and length distributions from the Icelandic bottom trawl survey. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 217 563 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.041 | Fishing mortality that leads to MSY; estimated using stochastic simulations | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 156 568 | Bloss. Median SSB (2000–2005) |
Bpa | 217 563 | Blim × e1.645σ, σ = 0.2. | |
Flim | 0.079 | Fishing mortality that in stochastic equilibrium will result in median SSB at Blim | |
Fpa | 0.041 | Maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is < 5% |
Prospects
Demersal beaked redfish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
F (2024) | 0.014 | F that corresponds to assumed catch in 2024 |
SSB (2025) | 91 426 | Projected from the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 3.7 | From the assessment; in millions |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 3.5 | From the assessment; in millions |
Catch (2024) | 1 500 | Based on catches in the first eight months of the 2023/2024 fishing year; in tonnes |
Demersal beaked redfish. Projection of SSB (tonnes)
Basis | Catch (2025) | F (2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | 0 | 0 | 90 571 | -0.9 | |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (0 t) | |||||
Quality of assessment
The stock was benchmarked in 2023 (ICES, 2023a) and is now assessed as a category 1 stock using an age and length-based assessment model (Gadget). This has increased the quality of the assessment and improved the robustness of the advice by taking stock dynamics into account.
In 2024 an error was discovered affecting the estimates of spawning stock biomass resulting in an upward revision of the entire SSB history. It was therefore necessary to recalculate reference points. The revised Blim and Bpa were estimated higher than previously.
Demersal beaked redfish. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2023).
Other information
Sebastes mentella is a slow-growing, late-maturing (>10 years) species; it is, therefore, considered particularly vulnerable to overexploitation. Since 2007, survey estimates of S. mentella have consistently shown very low abundance of pre-fishery juveniles (< 30 cm). This raises concerns about the productivity of the stock. Regardless of future recruitment levels, the SSB will continue to decline for both the short and medium term due to late maturation of this species.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Demersal beaked redfish. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 10 000 | 12 500 | 12 085 |
2011/2012 | 10 000 | 12 000 | 12 321 |
2012/2013 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 10 396 |
2013/2014 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 753 |
2014/2015 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 037 |
2015/2016 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 599 |
2016/2017 | 12 922 | 12 922 | 8 556 |
2017/2018 | 11 786 | 11 786 | 10 540 |
2018/2019 | 13 012 | 13 012 | 8 660 |
2019/2020 | 12 492 | 12 492 | 10 637 |
2020/2021 | 12 384 | 12 384 | 11 503 |
2021/2022 | 7 926 | 7 926 | 10 035 |
2022/2023 | 6 336 | 6 336 | 8 301 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | |
2024/2025 | 0 |
References and Further Reading
Stofnmatsskýrslur Hafrannsóknastofnunar 2024. Djúpkarfi. Hafrannsóknastofnun, 7. júní 2024.