OFFSHORE SHRIMP Pandalus borealis
Publication of Advice: 17 August 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI advises in accordance with the MSY approach that catches in the fishing years 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 should be no more than 4 537 tonnes in each fishing year.
Stock development
Fishable biomass index is above Ilim and the fishing pressure is below Fproxy.
Northern shrimp offshore. Catches, Fproxy and fishable biomass indices with Itrigger and Ilim.
Basis of the Assessment and reference points*
Basis of the advice | MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Trends in biomass indicators |
Input data | Commercial catch and survey biomass indices (Icelandic shrimp survey) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | Fproxy | 0.2 | Mean Fproxy in 2010–2015 |
Precautionary approach | Ilim | 12 200 | roxy for Blim. Biomass index value of 20% of the mean of the three highest indices. |
Itrigger | 12 200 | Ilim |
The ICES framework for short lived stocks for which analytical assessment is not possible but trends in biomass indicators are assumed to reflect changes in stock dynamics was applied (Category 3 stock, ICES, 2022). Survey biomass index of offshore northern shrimp, along with catch, is used to calculate Fproxy (catch/survey biomass). The advice is based on multiplying the most recent index value with the target Fproxy value.
Northern shrimp offshore Advice calculation
Ay: Catch advice for 2023/2024 | 5 022 |
Biomass index | |
Latest index value (I2024) | 22 683 |
Fishing pressure proxy** | |
Fproxy: Mean Fproxy in 2010–2015 | 0.2 |
Biomass safeguard | |
Index trigger value (Itrigger) | 12 200 |
b: Index relative to trigger value, min{I2024/Itrigger, 1} | 1 |
Precautionary multiplier to maintain biomass above Blim with 95% probability | |
Catch advice for 2024/20251) | 4 537 |
% advice change2) | -11 |
1) A~y+1~ = I~y~ × F~proxy~ × b | |
2) The figures in the table are rounded. Calculations were done with unrounded inputs, and compared values may not match exactly when calculated using the rounded figures in the table. | |
Prospects
The juvenile index has been low since 2004 and at historically low levels since 2015. The number of young males increased in 2024 and the juvenile index was the highest since 2015. The biomass index has been relatively stable since 2012 but has decreased since 2018. The shrimp surveys therefore suggest that the stock will remain at low levels in coming years.
Other information
Next survey will be in 2026.
The abundance index of cod in the offshore shrimp survey has been high since 2014, with highest values observed in 2016–2018, but was lower in 2020 and 2022. In 2024 the highest cod index since 1988 was observed. Abundance of cod has also been high in the spring groundfish survey (IS-SMB) and the autumn groundfish survey (IS-SMH). Therefore, it is assumed that predation of shrimp by cod has increased in recent years.
Advice, Tac and catch
Northern shrimp offshore. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1991/1992 | 35 000 | 40 000 | 34 200 |
1992/1993 | 35 000 | 40 000 | 45 100 |
1993/1994 | 40 000 | 52 000 | 55 908 |
1994/1995 | 60 000 | 62 000 | 62 965 |
1995/1996 | 40 000 | 63 000 | 66 017 |
1996/1997 | 55 000 | 60 000 | 57 444 |
1997/1998 | 70 000 | 75 000 | 61 179 |
1998/1999 | 40 000 | 40 000 | 30 678 |
1999/2000 | 20 000 | 20 000 | 20 677 |
2000/2001 | 25 000 | 25 000 | 22 052 |
2001/2002 | 35 000 | 35 000 | 27 354 |
2002/2003 | 30 000 | 30 000 | 24 327 |
2003/2004 | 20 000 | 20 000 | 18 038 |
2004/2005 | 5 000 | 10 000 | 5 344 |
2005/2006 | 1 000 | 10 000 | 1 037 |
2006/2007 | 7 000 | 7 000 | 1 887 |
2007/2008 | 7 000 | 7 000 | 1 865 |
2008/2009 | 7 000 | 7 000 | 3 955 |
2009/2010 | 7 000 | 7 000 | 7 144 |
2010/20111) | 7 000 | 6 345 | |
2011/20121) | 7 000 | 6 635 | |
2012/20131) | 5 000 | 7 387 | |
2013/20141) | 5 000 | 5 192 | |
2014/2015 | 5 000 | 5 000 | 4 105 |
2015/2016 | 4 000 | 4 000 | 4 259 |
2016/2017 | 4 100 | 4 100 | 3 066 |
2017/2018 | 5 000 | 5 000 | 3 519 |
2018/2019 | 5 852 | 5 852 | 2 490 |
2019/2020 | 4 682 | 4 682 | 1 703 |
2020/2021 | 5 136 | 5 136 | 3 182 |
2021/2022 | 5 136 | 5 136 | 2 117 |
2022/2023 | 5 022 | 5 022 | 1 988 |
2023/2024 | 5 022 | 5 022 | |
2024/2025 | 4 537 | ||
2025/2026 | 4 537 | ||
1) No limit on offshore shrimp landings | |||
References and further reading
ICES. 2022. ICES technical guidance for harvest control rules and stock assessments for stocks in categories 2 and 3. In Report of ICES Advisory Committee, 2022. ICES Advice 2022, Section 16.4.11. (https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19801564).
MFRI Assessment Reports 2022. Offshore northern shrimp. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 24 August 2022.