Capelin Mallotus villosus
Publication of Advice: 11. October 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI advises that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 0 tonnes.
Stock development
Projected lower 5% quartile stock size in 2025 is below Blim.
Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immatures from autumn surveys, and SSB at spawning time (with 90% confidence). Estimate of stock size for 2025 (dot) is based on projections.
Basis of the advice and reference points*
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | Precautionary approach. An initial TAC is set with a very low probability of being higher than a regression estimated final TAC. A final TAC set in winter will have >95% probability of SSB being greater than or equal to Blim at spawning time. |
Assessment type | The final TAC advice is based on a model which takes into account uncertainty in surveys and predation from cod, haddock, and saithe on capelin, to ensure that the advised catch will result in a less than 5% chance of SSB going below Blim. The initial TAC advice is set applying a HCR designed to ensure a low risk of advised catch being higher than the final TAC (ICES,2015). |
Input data for the intermediate advice | The abundance estimate of maturing capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the final advice | The abundance estimate of maturing capelin from acoustic surveys in winter. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
Precautionary approach | Blim | 114 000 | Mean size of SSB of three small year classes that produced above average recruitment (ICES 2023) |
Prognosis
Capelin. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Breyta | Gildi | Athugasemdir |
|---|---|---|
Veiðistofn (2024) | 307 242 | Stofnmæling skv. haustleiðangri, í tonnum. |
Stærð þorskstofns (2024) | 824 000 | Inntak í afránslíkani, í tonnum |
Stærð ýsustofns (2024) | 270 000 | Inntak í afránslíkani, í tonnum |
Stærð ufsastofns (2024) | 300 000 | Inntak í afránslíkani, í tonnum |
Afli (2024/2025) | 0 | Ekkert upphafsaflamark ráðlagt |
Capelin. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Grunnur | Afli (2024/2025) | Hrygningarstofn (2025)1) | % Breyting á ráðgjöf3) |
|---|---|---|---|
Aflaregla | 0 | 193 074 | 0 |
1) Hrygningarstofn 15. mars 2025 | |||
3) Ráðlagt aflamark fyrir 2025/2024 miðað við ráðlagt aflamark 2024/2023 (0 t) | |||
Quality of the Assessment
The acoustic survey is considered to have covered the distribution area of the stock. The survey estimate had low coefficient of variation (CV=0.25) as the capelin was relatively evenly distributed.
There is uncertainty related to the calibration of one of the vessels participating in the survey that may affect the assessment results.
Other information
The autumn measurement on mature capelin is lower than the immature capelin estimate from the autumn measurements in 2023 indicated.
This advice will be revised based on results of acoustic measurements of the fishable stock in early next year.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Capelin. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches.
Fishing year | Rec. initial TAC | Rec. final TAC | Final TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1986/1987 | 1 100 000 | 1 290 000 | 1 334 000 | |
1987/1988 | 500 000 | 1 115 000 | 1 117 000 | |
1988/1989 | 900 000 | 1 065 000 | 1 036 000 | |
1989/1990 | 900 000 | 900 000 | 808 000 | |
1990/1991 | 600 000 | 250 000 | 313 000 | |
1991/1992 | 0 | 740 000 | 677 000 | |
1992/1993 | 500 000 | 900 000 | 788 000 | |
1993/1994 | 900 000 | 1 250 000 | 1 179 000 | |
1994/1995 | 950 000 | 850 000 | 864 000 | |
1995/1996 | 800 000 | 1 390 000 | 926 000 | |
1996/1997 | 1 100 000 | 1 600 000 | 1 569 000 | |
1997/1998 | 850 000 | 1 265 000 | 1 245 000 | |
1998/1999 | 950 000 | 1 200 000 | 1 100 000 | |
1999/2000 | 866 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 931 000 |
2000/2001 | 650 000 | 1 110 000 | 1 090 000 | 1 070 000 |
2001/2002 | 700 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 249 000 |
2002/2003 | 690 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 989 000 |
2003/2004 | 555 000 | 875 000 | 900 000 | 743 000 |
2004/2005 | 335 000 | 985 000 | 985 000 | 784 000 |
2005/2006 | 0 | 238 000 | 235 000 | 247 000 |
2006/2007 | 0 | 385 000 | 385 000 | 377 000 |
2007/2008 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 203 000 |
2008/2009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 000 |
2009/2010 | 0 | 150 000 | 150 000 | 151 000 |
2010/2011 | 0 | 390 000 | 390 000 | 391 000 |
2011/2012 | 366 000 | 765 000 | 765 000 | 748 000 |
2012/2013 | 0 | 570 000 | 570 000 | 551 000 |
2013/2014 | 0 | 160 000 | 160 000 | 142 000 |
2014/2015 | 225 000 | 580 000 | 580 000 | 517 000 |
2015/2016 | 53 600 | 173 000 | 173 000 | 173 500 |
2016/2017 | 0 | 299 000 | 299 000 | 297 732 |
2017/2018 | 0 | 285 000 | 285 000 | 287 000 |
2018/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020/2021 | 169 520 | 127 300 | 127 300 | 128 647 |
2021/2022 | 400 000 | 869 600 | 869 600 | 689 200 |
2022/2023 | 400 000 | 459 800 | 459 800 | 330 051 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2024/2025 | 0 |
References and further reading
ICES. 2021. North Western Working Group (NWWG). ICES Scientific Reports volume 3, issue 52. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.8186
ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Expert%20Group%20Report/acom/2015/WKICE%202015/wkice_2015_final.pdf
ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 11 October 2024.