HERRING Clupea harengus
Publication of Advice: 7. June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 81 367 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is below HRMGT, HRpa and HRlim. Spawning stock size is above Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.
Herring. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate based on reference stock biomass (B4+). All biomass reference points refer to SSB levels (MSY Btrigger = MGT Btrigger = Bpa).
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as 19 % of reference biomass (biomass of 4+) |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices from accoustic surveys |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY | MSY Btrigger | 273 000 | Bpa |
HRMSY | 0.221 | Stochastic MSE simulations. | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 273 000 | Management plan |
HRmgt | 0.19 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 200 000 | SSB beyond which recruitment becomes impaired |
Bpa | 273 000 | Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 × σ), σ = 0.19 | |
HRlim | 0.34 | The harvest rate that leads to SSB = Blim | |
HRpa | 0.248 | Harvest rate leading to P (SSB > Blim) > 95% with MSY Btrigger |
Prospects
Herring. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
HR (2023/2024) | 0.2 | Harvest rate based on catch constraint |
SSB (2024) | 412 137 | Predicted (1 July 2024) after accounting for Ichthyophonus infection in 2023; in tonnes |
B4+ (2024) | 428 249 | From the assessment (1. January 2024); tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2024) | 537 005 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 578 019 | Mean of the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
B4+ (2025) | 406 154 | From the assessment (1. January 2025); tonnes |
Catch (2023/2024) | 94 422 | Reported catch from June 2023 to the end of April 2024; tonnes. |
Herring. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | Harvest rate (2024/2025) | SSB (2026)1) | % SSB change2) | Advice change3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 81 367 | 0.19 | 401 000 | -3 | -12 |
1) SSB on 1 July 2025 | |||||
2) SSB in 2025 relative to SSB in 2024 | |||||
3) Advice value for 2025/2024 relative to advice value for 2024/2023 92634 | |||||
The advice has changed by -12% due to a change in stock perception.
Quality of the Assessment
Since 2024 the stock is assessed using a catch-at-age based assessment model (SAM) (ICES, 2024). Ichthyophonus infection mortality has been revaluated for the period 2008-2023, resulting in applying lower infection mortality than previously.
Herring. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023). The reference points and assessment were revised in 2024, and only assessment results from the last year should be compared to the reference points indicated.
Other information
Herring. Fishing grounds in fishing season 2023/2024 (t/nmi2).
The herring fishery 2023/2024 took place in offshore waters west and east of Iceland. The total catch amounted to 94 422 tonnes, where 66 396 tonnes were caught west of Iceland mostly in October-January, and 28 022 tonnes in the east in July-November as bycatch in the fishery for Norwegian spring-spawning herring and mackerel. The catch was caught in pelagic trawl.
Infection of Ichthyophonus still persists in the stock, but at lower rates. This is considered in both the assessment and the management plan.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Herring. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes). Catches represents sum of the winter catches and the summer catches in the preceding fishing year.
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1985 | 50 000 | 50000 | 49 400 |
1986 | 50 000 | 65000 | 65 510 |
1987 | 65 000 | 72900 | 75 400 |
1988 | 70 000 | 90000 | 92 800 |
1989 | 100 000 | 90000 | 101 000 |
1990/1991 | 95 000 | 100000 | 105 100 |
1991/1992 | 90 000 | 110000 | 109 500 |
1992/1993 | 79 000 | 110000 | 108 510 |
1993/1994 | 86 000 | 110000 | 102 700 |
1994/1995 | 110 000 | 130000 | 134 000 |
1995/1996 | 83 000 | 110000 | 125 850 |
1996/1997 | 120 000 | 110000 | 95 850 |
1997/1998 | 97 000 | 100000 | 64 930 |
1998/1999 | 90 000 | 90000 | 87 240 |
1999/2000 | 90 000 | 100000 | 92 900 |
2000/2001 | 100 000 | 110000 | 100 330 |
2001/2002 | 110 000 | 125000 | 101 400 |
2002/2003 | 125 000 | 105000 | 96 100 |
2003/2004 | 113 000 | 110000 | 126 000 |
2004/2005 | 113 000 | 110000 | 115 000 |
2005/2006 | 106 000 | 110000 | 103 050 |
2006/2007 | 110 000 | 130000 | 135 310 |
2007/2008 | 110 000 | 150000 | 158 900 |
2008/2009 | 117 000 | 130000 | 151 780 |
2009/2010 | 131 000 | 40000 | 46 000 |
2010/2011 | 75 000 | 40000 | 43 533 |
2011/2012 | 40 000 | 45000 | 49 446 |
2012/2013 | 67 000 | 68500 | 72 236 |
2013/2014 | 87 000 | 87000 | 72 058 |
2014/2015 | 83 000 | 83000 | 94 975 |
2015/2016 | 71 000 | 71000 | 69 729 |
2016/2017 | 63 000 | 63 000 | 60 403 |
2017/2018 | 38 712 | 39000 | 35 034 |
2018/2019 | 35 186 | 35186 | 40 683 |
2019/2020 | 34 572 | 34572 | 30 041 |
2020/2021 | 722 391 | 35490 | 36 041 |
2021/2022 | 72 239 | 72239 | 70 084 |
2022/2023 | 66 195 | 66195 | 72 804 |
2023/2024 | 92 633 | 92633 | 94 422 |
2024/2025 | 81 367 |
References and further reading
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Herring. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024.
ICES. 2024. Workshop on the assessment and management plan evaluation for Icelandic herring (WKICEHER). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:37. 91 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.25605135