GREATER SILVER SMELT Argentina silus
Publication of Advice: 7 June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in the 2024/2025 fishing year in the Icelandic and East Greenland area should be no more than 12 273 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY and spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Greater silver smelt. Catch by area, recruitment (age 5), fishing mortality (ages 6–14), and spawning stock biomass. Shaded area and error bars represent 90% CI.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Analytical assessment (gadget) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast |
Input data | Age and length data from commercial catches and surveys (IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 25 437 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.07 | Fishing mortality that leads to MSY; estimated using stochastic simulations | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 18 300 | Bloss (SSB in 2010) |
Bpa | 25 437 | Blim * 1.4 | |
Flim | 0.24 | Equilimbrium F which will maintain the stock above Blim with a 50% probability | |
Fpa | 0.16 | F that leads to a < 5% risk of SSB < Blim in equilibrium |
Prospects
Greater silver smelt. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages 6-14 (2024) | 0.04 | F that corresponds to assumed catch in 2024. |
Recruitment 5 ára (2025) | 7 532 | Estimated by the model; in thousands. |
SSB (2025) | 105 139 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment 5 ára (2026) | 128 251 | Estimated by the model; in thousands. |
Catch (2024) | 6 572 | Advised catch for 2024 is estimated with modelled landings for the fist quarter 2024 plus the landings in the previous year in quarter 2 and 3, plus forecast catches at FMSY for the fourth quarter; in tonnes |
Greater silver smelt. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on the MSY approach.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | F~(ages 6-14) (2024/2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach: FMSY * SSB2024/MSY Btrigger | 12 232 | 0.07 | 104 282.607412864003 | -1 | 12 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2024/2025 relative to advice value for 2023/2024 (10920 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
The advice is based on the results of an age and length-based assessment model (Gadget). The survey index fluctuates greatly between years; this is partly caused by shoaling behaviour and vertical migrations. This increases uncertainty in the assessment, but the assessment is not considered to be biased (ICES,2021).
The Icelandic autumn survey (IS–SMH) covers the depth range and geographical distribution of the stock and the fisheries in Division 5.a. For Subarea 14, where some catches have been reported in recent years, the Greenlandic deepsea survey has shown that the distribution of the species extends along the shelf edge south to 62°00ˈN. Proportion of the stock in this area is unknown.
Greater silver smelt. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates 2020–2023
Other information
Catches since the 2013/2014 fishing year have been far below the TAC.
Advice, TAC and catch
Greater silver smelt. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC1) | Catches other nations2) | Catches Iceland |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 8 000 | 8 000 | 12 091 | |
2011/2012 | 6 000 | 6 000 | 0 | 8 410 |
2012/2013 | 8 000 | 8 000 | 11 039 | |
2013/2014 | 8 000 | 8 000 | 7 243 | |
2014/2015 | 8 000 | 8 000 | 4 | 6 849 |
2015/2016 | 8 000 | 8 000 | 12 | 6 019 |
2016/2017 | 7 885 | 7 885 | 16 | 3 570 |
2017/2018 | 9 310 | 9 310 | 666 | 5 159 |
2018/2019 | 7 603 | 7 603 | 425 | 2 807 |
2019/2020 | 9 124 | 9 124 | 2 | 3 775 |
2020/2021 | 8 729 | 8 729 | 27 | 4 282 |
2021/2022 | 8 717 | 8 717 | 15 | 6 550 |
2021/2022 | 9 244 | 9 244 | 28 | 6 550 |
2022/2023 | 11 520 | 11 520 | 0 | 5 430 |
2023/2024 | 10 9203) | 12 080 | ||
2024/2025 | 12 273 | |||
1) Icelandic TAC | ||||
2) Calendar year catches in East Greenland | ||||
3) Corrected advice in 2024 | ||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop of Greater silver smelt (WKGSS; Outputs from 2020 meeting). ICES Scientific Reports, 3:5. 485 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5986.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Greater silver smelt. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024.