Deep pelagic beaked redfish Sebastes mentella
Publication of Advice: 30 September 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach and precautionary considerations are applied, there should be zero catch in each of the years 2025, 2026 og 2027.
Stock Development
Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, Fpa, and Flim; spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Deep pelagic beaked redfish. Summary of the assessment. Recruitment (R), fishing mortality (F) and spawning‑stock biomass (SSB) are expressed relative to the average of the time-series (1985–2024 for R, 1991–2024 for F, and 1991–2024 for SSB). Relative recruitment since 2009 is assumed to be at the geometric mean of 1985–2008 and is shown in pale blue.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | ICES MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Length and age based analytical assessment (Gadget model) |
Input data | Commercial catches (international landings), length and age data from catches, survey index and length data (International Acoustic and Trawl Survey for redfish), natural mortality is assumed to be 0.05 for all ages and years. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 1.400 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.135 | Maximizes long-term yield in stochastic simulation based on recruitment estimates from 1985–2006, while being constrained to remain less than, or equal to Fpa. | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 1.000 | Bpa / 1.4 |
Bpa | 1.400 | B2001. In the absence of any evidence of recruitment impairment = SSB in 2001 (the minimum biomass from the years corresponding to the year classes with reliable recruitment estimates, 1990–2001) | |
Flim | 0.188 | The F that leads to Blim in the long term. From stochastic simulations | |
Fpa | 0.135 | Flim / 1.4 |
Prospects
Deep pelagic beaked redfish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. All values, except for the catch, are relative to the average of the time‑series in the stock assessment.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Relative F (2024) | 1.28 | F for lengths >39 cm based on the assumed catch in 2024 |
Relative R (age 6) (2024–2026) | 0.93 | Geometric mean 1985–2008 |
SSB (2025) | 0.33 | Based on short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Catch (2024) | 20 000 | Assumed total catch taken by Russian Federation in 2024 based on preliminary catches reported to NEAFC; zero catches assumed for other countries owing to the zero TAC set by NEAFC; tonnes |
Deep pelagic beaked redfish. Catch scenarios. The values in the columns “Relative F” and “Relative SSB” are relative to the average of the time-series in the stock assessment.
Basis | Catch (2025) | Relative F (2025) | Relative SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | 0 | 0 | 0.358 | -8 | |
1) SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (0 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
A fishery-independent time-series from an international trawl-acoustic survey is available from 1999 and provides a biomass index every two years from 1999 to 2015 and also in 2018, 2021, and 2024. Survey coverage has been reduced over time (Table 4). The surveys conducted in June-August 2021 and in June-July 2024 covered the main distribution area of the stock. The vertical mixing between shallow pelagic and deep pelagic beaked redfish is source of additional uncertainty in the survey.
The most recent assessment shows a upward revision of stock size and recruitment compared to the previous 2021 assessment. This revision is a consequence of the assumed recruitment since 2009 onwards and survey biomass estimate in 2024 being higher than the value predicted in the 2021 assessment. From 2009 onwards the geometric mean of the recruitment is an assumed value, as reliable estimates after 2009 are not available; this is because new age data have not been available since 2013 and fish recruit to the fishery relatively late (e.g. at age eight or nine).
Deep pelagic beaked redfish. Historical assessment results (relative to the mean). Relative recruitment (R) for the last ten years is assumed to be at the geometric mean of the preceding period. (Note that in previous years the terminal year for recruitment and fishing mortality has varied.)
Other information
The SSB is forecasted to remain below Blim with high probability, even with no catches being taken in 2025 and 2026. ICES advises, therefore, zero catch for 2025–2027.
There is no agreement on the TAC for this stock. Russian Federation has, since 2011, unilaterally decided on a Russian quota that considers both redfish management units (the shallow and the deep pelagic redfish in ICES subareas 5, 12, and 14 as well as in NAFO subareas 1 and 2) as a single stock. Russian scientists consider the deep and shallow pelagic stocks as a single stock. Until new information is available, ICES continues to use its current stock definition.
The total catches by all countries fishing for pelagic redfish have considerably exceeded the sum of ICES advised catch for both shallow pelagic and deep pelagic redfish stocks. This is particularly true since 2017, when the advice was for zero catch for both stocks.
Beaked redfish is a slow-growing, late-maturing species, and any recovery from a low stock level would therefore extend over many years. Simulations show that even at the present low catch levels there is a high probability that the pelagic redfish stock will not recover over the next decade (ICES, 2016). There are indications from length distribution data that there may have been some improvement in recruitment since 2009. However, further information is required before these estimates are confirmed, and it will be several years before these year classes could contribute to the SSB.
The current assessment relies on survey information. The next survey is planned to be in 2027.
Advice, TAC and catch
Deep pelagic beaked redfish. History of ICES advice, the agreed TAC, and ICES estimates of catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches others | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 20 000 | 11 788 | 11 994 | 35 339 | 47 333 |
2012 | 20 000 | 9 926 | 5 912 | 26 894 | 32 806 |
2013 | 20 000 | 8 065 | 8 545 | 37 507 | 46 052 |
2014 | 20 000 | 6 204 | 2 081 | 21 674 | 23 755 |
2015 | 10 000 | 2 947 | 1 968 | 25 465 | 27 433 |
2016 | 10 000 | 2 637 | 2 601 | 26 053 | 28 654 |
2017 | 0 | 2 327 | 1 929 | 27 962 | 29 891 |
2018 | 0 | 2 016 | 1 138 | 23 315 | 24 453 |
2019 | 1 762 | 236 | 24 167 | 24 403 | |
2020 | 0 | 0 | 19 288 | 19 288 | |
2021 | 0 | 0 | 21 855 | 21 855 | |
2022 | 0 | 0 | 17 242 | 17 242 | |
2023 | 0 | 0 | 24 253 | 24 253 | |
2024 | 0 | 0 | 20 000 | 20 000 | |
2025 | 0 | ||||
2026 | 0 | ||||
2027 | 0 |
References and further reading
ICES. 2016. Report of the Workshop on Assessment and Catch Advice for Deep Pelagic Redfish in the Irminger Sea (WKDEEPRED), 23–25 August 2016, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:52. 56 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5602
ICES. 2024. Working Group on International Deep Pelagic Ecosystem Surveys (WGIDEEPS). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:43. 32 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.8056
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Deep pelagic beaked redfish. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30 September 2024.