LING Molva molva
Publication of Advice: 7 June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 6 479 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is above FMGT but below Flim, and Fpa. Spawning-stock size is above MGT Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Ling. Catch by gear types, recruitment (age 2), fishing mortality (ages 8–11), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMGT = 0.23 applied to ages 7 to 10, modified by the ratio SSBy/MGT B~trigger~ when SSBy < MGT B~trigger~. The expected range of realized fishing mortalities (F) following the management plan (FMGT) is between 0.15 and 0.31. |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Age and length data from commercial catches and surveys (IS-SMB, IS-SMH and IS-SMN) and total catches. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | FMSY | Leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations (EqSim). | |
MSY Btrigger | Based on Bpa | ||
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | From the management plan | |
FMGT | From the management plan | ||
Precautionary approach | Blim | 9 000 | Lowest SSB (2016) where large recruitment was observed |
Bpa | 11 100 | Blim x e^1.645 * 0.2^ | |
Flim | 0.95 | Fishing mortality that in stochastic equilibrium will result in median SSB at Blim | |
Fpa | 0.62 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5% |
Prospects
Ling. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2024) | 6 732 | Results from Fages–5-10 (2024); in tonnes. |
SSB (2025) | 28 271 | Short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 3 327 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 3 327 | Averaged from the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
Fages8-11 (2024) | 0.31 | Assuming status quo F (average over the last three years) for 1 January–31 August 2024 and FMGT for 1 September–31 December 2024; tonnes |
Ling Projection of SSB (tonnes) on catch according to management plans.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | Fishing mortality (2024/2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 6 479 | 0.3 | 26 622 | -6 | -1 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2024/2025 relative to advice value for 2023/2024 (6566 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
In the evaluation of the management plan (MP) for tusk in Icelandic waters (ICES, 2022a), the basis for assessment was revised and the adopted harvest control rule (HCR) was considered in accordance with the precautionary approach and consistent with the ICES MSY framework. The results of the assessment in 2024 are in line with those in 2023.
Ling. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates 2020–2023.
Advice, TAC and catch
Ling. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 9 327 | 9 327 | |
2011/2012 | 8 800 | 9 000 | 10 072 | 0 | 10 072 |
2012/2013 | 12 000 | 12 000 | 11 125 | 44 | 11 140 |
2013/2014 | 14 000 | 14 000 | 11 794 | 1 763 | 12 982 |
2014/2015 | 14 300 | 14 300 | 11 684 | 1 974 | 13 658 |
2015/2016 | 16 200 | 16 200 | 9 773 | 1 456 | 11 229 |
2016/2017 | 9 343 | 9 343 | 7 291 | 1 135 | 8 426 |
2017/2018 | 8 5981) | 8 598 | 7 017 | 1 309 | 8 326 |
2018/2019 | 6 2551) | 6 255 | 6 927 | 1 101 | 8 028 |
2019/2020 | 6 5991) | 6 599 | 5 972 | 1 183 | 7 155 |
2020/2021 | 5 7001) | 5 700 | 6 201 | 1 012 | 7 213 |
2021/2022 | 4 7351) | 4 735 | 5 814 | 885 | 6 699 |
2022/2023 | 6 0982) | 6 098 | 7 511 | 926 | 8 437 |
2023/2024 | 6 5662) | 6 566 | |||
2024/2025 | 6 4792) | ||||
1) 18 % harvest control rule | |||||
2) FMGT = 0.3 | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2022. Workshop on the evaluation of assessments and management plans for ling, tusk, plaice and Atlantic wolffish in Icelandic waters (WKICEMP). ICES Scientific Reports. 4:37. 271 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19663971
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Ling. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024.