GOLDEN REDFISH Sebastes norvegicus

Advice 2024/2025

46 911

tonnes

Advice 2023/2024

41 286

tonnes

Advice changes

14 %

Note: The advice is for the area East-Greenland / Iceland / the Faroe Islands

Publication of Advice: 7 June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Institute.


Advice

MFRI and ICES advise that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 in the East Greenland / Iceland / Faroe Islands area should be no more than 46 911.

Stock Development

Fishing pressure is below FMSY, Fpa and Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.

Golden redfish. Catches by area, recruitment, fishing mortality (ages 9–19), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.

Basis of the assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice

ICES MSY approach

Management plan

TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMSY =0.112 applied to ages 9–19, modified by the ratio SSBy/MSY Btrigger when SSBy < MSY Btrigger

Assessment type

Statistical catch at age model (SAM)

Input data

Landing data and length distributions of catches from Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroes, survey data by length from Iceland (IS-SMB, IS-SMH), East Greenland (GER(GRL)-GFS-Q4) and the Faroe Islands (FO-GFS-Q1, FO-GFS-Q3), age data from Icelandic catches and IS-SMH

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY approach

MSY Btrigger

154 094

Bpa

FMSY

0.112

Leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations (EqSim)

Precautionary approach

Blim

110 893

Bloss. Lowest SSB (1994)

Bpa

154 094

Blim x e1.645 * 0.2

Flim

0.1672

Fishing mortality that in stochastic equilibrium will result in median SSB at Blim

Fpa

0.114

Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5%

Prospects

Golden redfish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.

Variable

Value

Notes

Fages­9-19 (2024)

0.098

From the forecast for 2024, based on the assumed catch in 2024; in tonnes

SSB (2025)

281 192

Projected from the assessment; in tonnes

Recruitment age 6 (2024)

31 698

From the assessment; in thousands

Recruitment age 6 (2025)

38 758

Average of the last five cohorts in 2020–2024; in thousands

Catch (2024)

41 318

Sum of expected landings from (2024); in tonnes.

Golden redfish. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on the MSY approach.

Basis

Catch (2025)

Fishing mortality ages 9-19 (2025)

SSB (2026)

% SSB change1)

Advice change2)

MSY approach

46 911

0.112

258 906

-8

14

1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025

2) Advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (41286 t)

The advised catch has increased because the SSB has been revised upwards.

Quality of the assessment

The basis for the advice was revised (ICES 2023). The new assessment model allows for changes in selectivity and growth over time, corresponding to observations, leading to an upward revision of stock biomass and a downward revision of fishing mortality.

Because of the aggregating behaviour of the species, survey indices are often largely dominated by a few large hauls. This causes high uncertainties in the survey indices and large interannual fluctuation in estimates of the biomass index.

Golden redfish. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023). Final-year recruitment and biomass estimates are included. The reference points were revised in 2023 following a benchmark and only the last assessment results should be compared to the reference points indicated. Prior to the benchmark, recruitment was estimated at age 5.

Other information

Since 2009, surveys of golden redfish have consistently shown very low abundance of small fish (≤30 cm). While current estimates of SSB were revised upwards, they show a decreasing trend since 2017. The assessment also shows historically low levels of incoming cohorts. This raises concerns about the productivity of the stock. Without substantial recruitment, biomass levels will likely continue to decline rapidly leading to decreasing catch advice.

The fishery catching S. mentella and S. norvegicus in East Greenland is managed using a joint TAC. Management measures should be implemented at both species- and stock level.

No formal agreement on the management of S. norvegicus exists among the three coastal states, Greenland, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands. An agreement exists between Iceland and Greenland since July 2023 on the management of the golden redfish fishery based on the ICES management plan applied in 2023. The agreement is from 2024.

Advice, TAC and catch

Golden redfish. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes). Note that catch in Icelandic waters is by fishing year whereas catch in other areas and total catch is by calendar year.

Fishing year

Recommended TAC

National TAC

Catches in Icelandic waters

Catches in East Greenland waters1)

Catches in Faroes waters1)

Total catch1)

2010/2011

30  000

37  500

39  432

1  006

493

45  272

2011/2012

40  000

40  000

44  514

1  973

491

45  553

2012/2013

45  000

45  000

46  549

1  484

372

53  186

2013/2014

52  000

52  000

52  451

2  706

202

50  683

2014/2015

48  0002)

45  600

48  349

2  562

270

51  602

2015/2016

51  0002)

48  500

54  818

5  442

179

59  657

2016/2017

52  8002)

47  205

48  352

4  512

1  413

56  044

2017/2018

50  8002)

45  450

51  857

4  005

1  128

53  147

2018/2019

43  6002)

39  240

44  616

2  665

1  118

48  529

2019/2020

43  5682)

38  896

41  251

4  105

1  304

46  097

2020/2021

38  3432)

34  379

41  014

3  524

178

43  318

2021/2022

31  8552)

28  554

33  403

2  210

128

32  375

2022/2023

25  5452)

22  615

28  820

2  741

181

35  114

2023/2024

41  2862)

36  462

2024/2025

46  9112)

1) Calendar year

2) Harvest control rule for East Greenland/Iceland/Faroes. The Faroe Islands are not a part of the agreement

References and further reading

ICES. 2023a. Benchmark workshop on Greenland halibut and redfish stocks (WKBNORTH). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:33.

MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Golden redfish. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024.