SAITHE Pollachius virens
Publication of Advice: 7 June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 66 705 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is below HRMGT, HRMSY, HRpa, and HRlim. Spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Saithe. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate based on reference stock biomass, reference stock biomass (4 years and older) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and Reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as the average of last year's TAC and 20% of reference biomass |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 65 000 | Spawning stock reached in 95% of cases in stochastic simulations with harvest rate = HRmsy , Btrigger = 0 and no catch stabilizer. |
HRMSY | 0.2 | Stochastic simulations | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 61 000 | Management plan |
HRMGT | 0.2 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 44 000 | Bpa/1.4 |
Bpa | 61 000 | Bloss is used as Bpa as fishing pressure has never been high for this stock, the spawning stock not depleted significantly, and no relationship is seen between spawning stock and recruitment | |
HRlim | 0.36 | Equilibrium HR which will maintain the stock above Blim with a 50% probability | |
HRpa | 0.25 | HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger |
Prospects
Saithe. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Harvest rate (2024) | 0.15 | Annual HR, based on estimated catch in 2024. |
Reference Biomass (2025) | 342 052 | Biomass of fish ages 4 and above (B4+). From the assessment; in tonnes |
SSB (2025) | 159 436 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2025) | 34 257 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Recruitment age 3 (2026) | 34 656 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Catch (2024) | 50 209 | Estimated catch until the end of the fishing year (31 August 2024) and estimated catch in the first four months of the next fishing year (1 September–31 December 2024); tonnes |
Saithe. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | Harvest rate (2024/2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 66 705 | 0.196 | 168 935 | 6 | 0 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2024/2025 relative to advice value for 2023/2024 (66533 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
The combination of uncertain survey indices and time-varying fleet selectivity can lead to periods where retrospective stock size revisions are large.
Saithe Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Other information
The trend for the last five years has been overestimation of the reference biomass, caused by high survey indices in 2018 followed by a substantial decrease from 2019–2022. The evaluation of the management plan incorporated uncertainties of this nature and of a similar magnitude (ICES, 2019). The catch has been less than the TAC since 2013. Part of the unused TAC has been used to fish for other species, under the Icelandic quota management system which allows limited transfer between species. This may, however, be contributing to the advice and TACs being exceeded for some species.
Advice, TAC and catch
Saithe. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 60 412 | 2 313 | 60 412 |
1985 | 60 000 | 70 000 | 55 140 | 1 966 | 55 140 |
1986 | 60 000 | 70 000 | 63 880 | 1 001 | 63 880 |
1987 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 78 152 | 2 356 | 78 152 |
1988 | 75 000 | 80 000 | 74 386 | 2 864 | 74 386 |
1989 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 79 757 | 2 615 | 79 757 |
1990 | 90 000 | 90 000 | 94 986 | 3 095 | 94 986 |
1991 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 69 063 | 2 926 | 69 063 |
1991/1992 | 70 000 | 75 000 | 85 155 | 1 765 | 85 155 |
1992/1993 | 80 000 | 92 000 | 98 425 | 1 758 | 98 507 |
1993/1994 | 75 000 | 85 000 | 66 620 | 1 209 | 66 831 |
1994/1995 | 70 000 | 75 000 | 49 919 | 1 679 | 50 474 |
1995/1996 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 40 525 | 1 177 | 40 915 |
1996/1997 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 37 370 | 843 | 37 498 |
1997/1998 | 30 000 | 30 000 | 32 692 | 1 111 | 32 777 |
1998/1999 | 30 000 | 30 000 | 30 835 | 1 086 | 31 210 |
1999/2000 | 25 000 | 30 000 | 29 648 | 166 | 29 838 |
2000/2001 | 25 000 | 30 000 | 31 385 | 249 | 31 513 |
2001/2002 | 25 000 | 37 000 | 36 264 | 408 | 36 439 |
2002/2003 | 35 000 | 45 000 | 47 474 | 547 | 47 569 |
2003/2004 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 55 970 | 1 093 | 56 003 |
2004/2005 | 70 000 | 70 000 | 70 636 | 1 290 | 70 673 |
2005/2006 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 77 869 | 470 | 77 896 |
2006/2007 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 66 474 | 423 | 66 474 |
2007/2008 | 60 000 | 75 000 | 66 735 | 295 | 66 737 |
2008/2009 | 50 000 | 65 000 | 61 997 | 422 | 61 997 |
2009/2010 | 35 000 | 50 000 | 57 404 | 500 | 57 404 |
2010/2011 | 40 000 | 50 000 | 51 593 | 833 | 51 593 |
2011/2012 | 45 000 | 52 000 | 49 666 | 1 020 | 49 703 |
2012/2013 | 49 000 | 50 000 | 51 273 | 1 353 | 51 576 |
2013/2014 | 57 0002) | 57 000 | 54 335 | 718 | 55 022 |
2014/2015 | 58 0002) | 58 000 | 52 035 | 524 | 52 559 |
2015/2016 | 55 0002) | 55 000 | 48 889 | 365 | 49 254 |
2016/2017 | 55 0002) | 55 000 | 44 688 | 292 | 44 980 |
2017/2018 | 60 2372) | 60 237 | 58 786 | 232 | 59 018 |
2018/2019 | 79 0922) | 79 092 | 70 150 | 175 | 70 325 |
2019/2020 | 80 5882) | 80 588 | 52 995 | 227 | 53 222 |
2020/2021 | 78 5742) | 78 574 | 56 163 | 161 | 56 324 |
2021/2022 | 77 5612) | 77 561 | 63 065 | 141 | 63 206 |
2022/2023 | 71 3002) | 71 300 | 45 658 | 179 | 45 837 |
2023/2024 | 66 5332) | 66 533 | |||
2024/2025 | 66 7052) | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year | |||||
2) 20 % harvest control rule | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2019. Workshop on the benchmark assessment and management plan evaluation for Icelandic haddock and saithe (WKICEMSE). ICES Scientific Reports. 1:10. 107 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5091
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Saithe. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024