HADDOCK Melanogrammus aeglefinus
Publication of Advice: 7. June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 76 774 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is above HRMSY and HRpa and below HRlim; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.
Haddock. Catch by gear type, recruitment, fishing mortality and harvest rate, reference stock biomass (B45+ cm) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as 35% of reference biomass (biomass of 45 cm and larger) in advisory year |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 49 400 | Bpa |
HRMSY | 0.35 | HRpa | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 49 400 | Management plan |
HRMGT | 0.35 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 35 500 | Bloss |
Bpa | 49 400 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.2 | |
HRlim | 0.63 | Equilibrium HR which will maintain the stock above Blim with a 50% probability | |
HRpa | 0.35 | HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger |
Prospects
Haddock. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Harvest rate (2024) | 0.39 | Annual HR, based on estimated catch in 2024. |
Viðmiðunarstofn (2025) | 219 356 | Biomass of fish 45 cm and larger (B45+). From the assessment; in tonnes |
SSB (2025) | 143 086 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 52 145 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 56 742 | Geometric mean recruitment based on the whole time series; in thousands |
Catch (2024) | 73 783 | Estimated catch until the end of the fishing year (31 August 2024) and estimated catch in the first four months of the next fishing year (1 September–31 December 2024); tonnes |
Haddock. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | Harvest rate (2024/2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 76 774 | 0.35 | 151 298 | 6 | 0 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2024/2025 relative to advice value for 2023/2024 (76415 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
Although this assessment consistently underestimates SSB and overestimates harvest rate, it is considered to be within acceptable limits.
Haddock Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Other information
Landings of haddock in Icelandic Waters have consistently exceeded the advised catch in recent years, mainly related to quota transfers between species. This results in a harvest rate higher than HRpa but within the realised harvest rates in the evaluation of the management plan.
Advice, tac and catch
Haddock. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 55 000 | 60 000 | 47 167 | 1 069 | 48 236 |
1985 | 45 000 | 60 000 | 49 573 | 1 380 | 50 953 |
1986 | 50 000 | 60 000 | 47 335 | 1 546 | 48 881 |
1987 | 50 000 | 60 000 | 39 751 | 1 282 | 41 033 |
1988 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 52 999 | 1 149 | 54 148 |
1989 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 61 715 | 1 089 | 62 804 |
1990 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 65 897 | 1 198 | 67 095 |
1991 | 38 000 | 48 000 | 39 142 | 1 218 | 40 360 |
1991/1992 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 47 285 | 1 118 | 47 285 |
1992/1993 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 60 302 | 1 833 | 60 385 |
1993/1994 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 56 171 | 2 912 | 58 443 |
1994/1995 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 60 522 | 1 028 | 60 828 |
1995/1996 | 55 000 | 60 000 | 53 868 | 747 | 53 972 |
1996/1997 | 40 000 | 45 000 | 49 729 | 340 | 49 764 |
1997/1998 | 40 000 | 45 000 | 37 808 | 513 | 37 810 |
1998/1999 | 35 000 | 35 000 | 45 115 | 903 | 45 146 |
1999/2000 | 35 000 | 35 000 | 41 150 | 10 | 41 150 |
2000/2001 | 31 000 | 30 000 | 39 116 | 746 | 39 143 |
2001/2002 | 30 000 | 41 000 | 41 059 | 855 | 41 070 |
2002/2003 | 55 000 | 55 000 | 55 251 | 1 020 | 55 269 |
2003/2004 | 75 000 | 75 000 | 77 916 | 1 126 | 77 917 |
2004/2005 | 97 000 | 90 000 | 96 617 | 1 562 | 96 617 |
2005/2006 | 110 000 | 105 000 | 99 918 | 1 592 | 99 926 |
2006/2007 | 112 000 | 105 000 | 99 763 | 1 699 | 99 763 |
2007/2008 | 120 000 | 100 000 | 109 810 | 1 208 | 109 810 |
2008/2009 | 83 000 | 93 000 | 88 618 | 829 | 88 618 |
2009/2010 | 57 000 | 63 000 | 67 579 | 368 | 67 579 |
2010/2011 | 51 000 | 50 000 | 50 042 | 217 | 50 042 |
2011/2012 | 42 000 | 45 000 | 49 179 | 338 | 49 179 |
2012/2013 | 32 000 | 36 000 | 40 481 | 667 | 40 512 |
2013/2014 | 38 000 | 38 000 | 38 948 | 794 | 39 629 |
2014/2015 | 30 4002) | 30 400 | 35 403 | 1 167 | 36 570 |
2015/2016 | 36 4002) | 36 400 | 38 646 | 1 471 | 40 117 |
2016/2017 | 34 6002) | 34 600 | 34 754 | 1 586 | 36 340 |
2017/2018 | 41 3902) | 41 390 | 42 500 | 1 200 | 43 700 |
2018/2019 | 57 9822) | 57 982 | 58 632 | 750 | 59 382 |
2019/2020 | 41 8233) | 41 823 | 47 894 | 1 097 | 48 991 |
2020/2021 | 45 3893) | 45 3894) | 59 143 | 1 529 | 60 672 |
2021/2022 | 50 4293) | 41 9295) | 49 759 | 2 227 | 51 986 |
2022/2023 | 62 2193) | 62 219 | 67 308 | 1 573 | 68 881 |
2023/2024 | 76 4153) | 76 415 | |||
2024/2025 | 76 7743) | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is only available by calendar year. Before that time total catches within the fishing year mostly excludes foreign landings. | |||||
2) 40 % harvest control rule | |||||
3) 35 % harvest control rule | |||||
4) TAC was increased by 8 000 t mid-fishing year | |||||
5) TAC was decreased by 8 000 t because of the increase in the previous fishing year | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2019. Workshop on the benchmark assessment and management plan evaluation for Icelandic haddock and saithe (WKICEMSE). ICES Scientific Reports. 1:10. 107 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5091
MFRI Assessment Reports 2023. Haddock. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7. June 2024.
Stofnmatsskýrslur Hafrannsóknastofnunar 2024. Ýsa. Hafrannsóknastofnun, 7. júní 2024.