COD Gadus morhua
Publication of Advice: 7. June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2024/2025 should be no more than 213 214 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is below HRMGT, HRMSY, and HRpa; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Cod. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate, reference stock biomass (B4+) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as the average of last year’s TAC and 20% of reference biomass |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 265 000 | The fifth percentile on the distribution of SSB when the TAC is based on HRMGT |
HRMSY | 0.22 | Stochastic HCR evaluation. Percentage of Bage 4+ | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 220 000 | Management plan |
HRMGT | 0.2 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 125 000 | Bloss |
Bpa | 160 000 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.15 | |
HRpa | 0.39 | HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger |
Prospects
Cod. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Harvest rate (2024) | 0.19 | Annual HR, based on estimated catch in 2024. |
SSB (2025) | 404 000 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2025) | 125 549 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Viðmiðunarstofn (2025) | 1069 480 | Short term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2026) | 142 138 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Catch (2024) | 200 600 | Estimated catch until the end of the fishing year (31 August 2024) and estimated catch in the first four months of the next fishing year (1 September–31 December 2024); tonnes |
Cod. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2024/2025) | Harvest rate (2024/2025) | SSB (2026) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 213 214 | 0.2 | 419 259 | 4 | 1 |
1) SSB in 2026 relative to SSB in 2025 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2024/2025 relative to advice value for 2023/2024 (211309 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
The current population dynamic estimates are in line with estimates from the previous three years.
Þorskur. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2020–2023).
Advice, TAC and Catch
Cod. Recommended TAC according to management plan, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 200 000 | 242 000 | 281 696 | 2 387 | 281 696 |
1985 | 200 000 | 263 000 | 322 750 | 2 457 | 322 750 |
1986 | 300 000 | 300 000 | 365 909 | 2 781 | 365 909 |
1987 | 300 000 | 330 000 | 389 936 | 2 449 | 389 936 |
1988 | 300 000 | 350 000 | 375 908 | 2 335 | 375 908 |
1989 | 300 000 | 325 000 | 354 195 | 2 324 | 354 195 |
1990 | 250 000 | 300 000 | 333 870 | 2 042 | 333 870 |
1991 | 240 000 | 245 000 | 243 369 | 1 871 | 243 369 |
1991/1992 | 250 000 | 265 000 | 272 172 | 1 105 | 272 172 |
1992/1993 | 154 000 | 205 000 | 476 069 | 7 357 | 480 394 |
1993/1994 | 150 000 | 165 000 | 264 480 | 12 431 | 277 263 |
1994/1995 | 130 000 | 155 000 | 164 113 | 7 076 | 168 441 |
1995/1996 | 155 0002) | 155 000 | 169 673 | 6 495 | 179 080 |
1996/1997 | 186 0002) | 186 000 | 203 915 | 2 716 | 205 661 |
1997/1998 | 218 0002) | 218 000 | 227 800 | 1 238 | 228 401 |
1998/1999 | 250 0002) | 250 000 | 254 729 | 1 477 | 254 942 |
1999/2000 | 247 0002) | 250 000 | 255 692 | 132 | 255 724 |
2000/2001 | 203 0002) | 220 000 | 221 740 | 1 267 | 221 792 |
2001/2002 | 190 0002) | 190 000 | 216 864 | 1 330 | 216 907 |
2002/2003 | 179 0002) | 179 000 | 196 652 | 2 434 | 196 678 |
2003/2004 | 209 0002) | 209 000 | 219 389 | 3 480 | 219 395 |
2004/2005 | 205 0002) | 205 000 | 209 333 | 3 019 | 209 457 |
2005/2006 | 198 000 | 198 000 | 201 839 | 1 807 | 201 857 |
2006/2007 | 178 000 | 193 000 | 186 762 | 1 847 | 186 762 |
2007/2008 | 130 0003) | 130 000 | 138 702 | 2 080 | 139 125 |
2008/2009 | 124 0003) | 160 000 | 168 515 | 1 383 | 168 515 |
2009/2010 | 150 0003) | 155 000 | 167 467 | 1 456 | 167 467 |
2010/2011 | 160 0003) | 160 000 | 164 719 | 1 426 | 164 734 |
2011/2012 | 177 0003) | 177 000 | 182 486 | 1 428 | 182 494 |
2012/2013 | 196 0003) | 195 000 | 210 361 | 1 543 | 210 510 |
2013/2014 | 215 0003) | 214 000 | 223 964 | 1 475 | 225 088 |
2014/2015 | 218 0003) | 218 000 | 221 061 | 1 544 | 222 605 |
2015/2016 | 239 0003) | 239 000 | 249 934 | 1 951 | 251 885 |
2016/2017 | 244 0003) | 244 000 | 234 649 | 2 605 | 237 254 |
2017/2018 | 257 5723) | 257 572 | 267 135 | 2 612 | 269 747 |
2018/2019 | 264 4373) | 264 437 | 262 888 | 2 013 | 264 901 |
2019/2020 | 272 4113) | 272 411 | 269 328 | 2 044 | 271 372 |
2020/2021 | 256 5933) | 256 593 | 269 423 | 2 365 | 271 788 |
2021/2022 | 222 3733) | 222 373 | 235 685 | 2 620 | 238 305 |
2022/2023 | 208 8463) | 208 846 | 217 445 | 2 358 | 219 803 |
2023/2024 | 211 3093) | 211 309 | |||
2024/2025 | 213 2143) | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year | |||||
2) 25 % harvest control rule | |||||
3) 20 % harvest control rule | |||||
References and further reading
ICES 2010. Report of the Ad hoc Group on Icelandic Cod HCR Evaluation (AGICOD), ICES CM 2009/ACOM:56. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5279
ICES. 2021. Workshop on the re-evaluation of management plan for the Icelandic cod stock (WKICE-COD). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:30. 85 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7987
Höskuldur Björnsson og Einar Hjörleifsson, 2014. Athugun á aflareglu fyrir íslenskan þorsk. Hafrannsóknastofnun. http://www.hafro.is/images/HCR_Evaluations/iCod_endurskodun_a_aflareglu_2014.pdf
MII. 2015. Icelandic Ministry of Industries and Innovation’s fisheries management plan for Icelandic cod.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2024. Cod. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 June 2024.
Stofnmatsskýrslur Hafrannsóknastofnunar 2024. Þorskur. Hafrannsóknastofnun, 7. júní 2024.